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Race 5Maiden Plate

LONE PINE CHARGE 20 APRIL MAIDEN PLATE ($19K)

TBA AEDT1458m19,00017 runners
AI Best Bet
#8 Turning CircleJ: Ashley Morgan
Despite being a maiden, this horse has a win to its credit (likely a non-TAB or picnic race not reflected in career wins) and the highest career earnings by a significant margin. This suggests a class edge over the field, making it the most likely winner with a good jockey aboard.
85%
Confidence

AI Selections & Analysis (17 runners)

1
Turning Circle
Barrier 8 · 126kg · Form:
LOW RISK
CAREER16:1-2
Jockey:Ashley Morgan
Trainer:Nathan Doyle

Despite being a maiden, this horse has a win to its credit (likely a non-TAB or picnic race not reflected in career wins) and the highest career earnings by a significant margin. This suggests a class edge over the field, making it the most likely winner with a good jockey aboard.

2
Cellito Sands
Barrier 5 · 129kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER0:0-0
Jockey:Rory Hutchings
Trainer:John Sargent

First-starter from a top stable (John Sargent) with a strong jockey (Rory Hutchings) and a good barrier (5). While unproven, the connections suggest it's well-prepared and has potential in this maiden field.

3
Toke
Barrier 2 · 129kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER7:0-1
Jockey:Kody Nestor
Trainer:Jan Bowen

This horse has a 14% place rate and a recent 3rd in its career, indicating some ability to finish in the placings. With a good barrier (2) and Kody Nestor aboard, it's a strong each-way chance to break its maiden.

4
Kenisis
Barrier 10 · 125kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER3:0-1
Jockey:Anna Roper
Trainer:Lou Mary

With a 33% place rate from only three starts, this horse has shown potential to run well. The light career suggests improvement is likely, and it could be competitive here despite the wide-ish barrier.

5
Captainthunderbolt
Barrier 4 · 129kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER1:0-0
Jockey:Serg Lisnyy
Trainer:Scott Singleton

Only one career start suggests plenty of upside for this runner from a decent stable (Scott Singleton) with a good barrier (4). Improvement is expected second-up, placing it as a potential each-way contender.

5
Thunder Lights
Barrier 3 · 129kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER4:0-0
Jockey:Jenny Duggan
Trainer:Kristen Buchanan

Only one career start suggests plenty of upside for this runner from a decent stable (Scott Singleton) with a good barrier (4). Improvement is expected second-up, placing it as a potential each-way contender.

6
Think Back
Barrier 1 · 125kg · Form:
MEDIUM RISK
CAREER6:0-0
Jockey:Mikayla Weir
Trainer:Scott Singleton

While unplaced in six starts, the inside barrier (1) and a trainer like Scott Singleton could see significant improvement. This horse might be ready to show something in a weaker maiden field.

8
Polyester Girl
Barrier 7 · 125kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER2:0-0
Jockey:Olivia Dalton
Trainer:Annabel & Rob Archibald

From a leading stable (Annabel & Rob Archibald) and with only two starts, there's scope for improvement. However, its form to date has been uninspiring, making it a rough chance at best.

9
Pratibha
Barrier 12 · 125kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER2:0-0
Jockey:Andrew Gibbons
Trainer:Kris Lees

Representing the Kris Lees stable with Andrew Gibbons aboard, this horse has had two unplaced runs. While improvement is possible third-up, the wide barrier (12) and lack of form are concerns.

10
Fortheo
Barrier 6 · 130kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER8:0-0
Jockey:Shannen Llewellyn
Trainer:Wayne Wilkes

With eight starts and no placings, this horse has had ample opportunity to show form. While it has some prizemoney, its win and place percentages are concerning for a maiden plate.

11
Radiant Tier
Barrier 11 · 125kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER3:0-0
Jockey:Jean Van Overmeire
Trainer:Kris Lees

Another Kris Lees runner with a top jockey (Jean Van Overmeire), but its three career starts have yielded no placings. The wide barrier (11) further complicates its chances in this field.

12
Senza Rivali
Barrier 11 · 129kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER2:0-0
Trainer:Kristen Buchanan

Two starts for no placings and a wide barrier (11) make this a difficult proposition. While from a decent stable, it needs to show significant improvement to be competitive.

13
Wild Legacy
Barrier 8 · 125kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER4:0-0
Jockey:Mitchell Bell
Trainer:Annabel & Rob Archibald

Four starts with no placings and minimal prizemoney indicate this horse is struggling to find form. While from a good stable, it's hard to make a case for it here.

14
Memphis Blue
Barrier 9 · 130kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER3:0-0
Jockey:Christian Reith
Trainer:Peter Mills

Three starts with no placings and low prizemoney suggest this horse is a long way off. It's difficult to see it featuring prominently in this race.

15
Time To Roll
Barrier 14 · 130kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER9:0-0
Jockey:Christian Reith
Trainer:Peter Mills

With nine starts and no placings, this horse has had many chances to show something. The wide barrier (14) further diminishes its already slim prospects.

16
My Nicconi Boy
Barrier 17 · 130kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER3:0-0
Trainer:Julia Presits

Three starts for no placings and the widest barrier (17) makes this horse a definite outsider. It will need a monumental improvement to be a factor.

17
Harry's Boy
Barrier 16 · 129kg · Form:
HIGH RISK
CAREER1:0-0
Trainer:Rodney Northam

One start for no result and the widest barrier (16) makes this horse a rank outsider. It's difficult to see it making an impact in this field.

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