Race 5Handicap

MACEDON RANGES GLASS BM56 HANDICAP ($15K)

TBA AEDT1811m15,00011 runners

AI Best Bet

#6 OlympiadJ: John Allen

Olympiad looks to be the class runner in this field, despite his limited starts. The step up to 1811m after a strong maiden win suggests he's ready for this challenge, and the McEvoy stable with John Allen aboard is a formidable combination. He should be highly competitive and is the clear top pick.

Progressive 3YOStrong maiden winTop stable/jockey combinationSuited by distance rise

Each-Way Value: Patsy's Star

88%

Confidence

AI Race Summary

This BM56 Handicap over 1811m presents a fascinating challenge with several lightly raced horses stepping up against more seasoned campaigners. The extended distance will be key, and those with a strong turn of foot or proven stamina will be advantaged in what appears to be a moderately run affair. Jockey and trainer form will play a significant role in separating the contenders.

AI Selections & Analysis (11 runners)

Olympiad

Barrier 6 · 137kg · Form: —

LOW RISK

CAREER5:1-0

Jockey:John Allen

Trainer:Tony & Calvin Mcevoy

Progressive 3YOStrong maiden winTop stable/jockey combinationSuited by distance rise

Rating Breakdown

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Bagpipes

Barrier 7 · 138kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER3:1-0

Jockey:Ryan Hurdle

Trainer:Peter Roche

Bagpipes impressed with a dominant maiden win over 1600m last start, suggesting the 1811m will be well within his grasp. He's lightly raced with upside and has a strong jockey booking in Ryan Hurdle. If he handles the step up in class, he's a serious threat to the favourite.

Impressive maiden winnerGood distance projectionLightly raced with upsideSolid jockey booking

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Riozino

Barrier 10 · 138kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER3:1-0

Jockey:Declan Bates

Trainer:Liam Howley

Riozino also broke his maiden recently and showed good stamina in doing so. While the wide barrier is a slight concern, Declan Bates is a skilled rider who can overcome it. He has the potential to continue improving and could be right in the finish if he gets a clean run.

Recent maiden winnerStamina evidentTalented jockey aboardStill developing

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Patsy's Star

Barrier 3 · 134kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER28:5-2

Jockey:Neil Farley

Trainer:Michael Sell

Patsy's Star is a consistent performer at this level and has a good record over middle distances, making her an attractive each-way prospect. The inside barrier is a significant advantage, and she often runs an honest race. While perhaps lacking the raw talent of the top picks, her reliability and draw make her a strong place chance.

Proven at distanceExcellent barrier drawConsistent performerGood each-way value

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Lightning Flash

Barrier 4 · 132kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER30:5-3

Jockey:Lachlan King

Trainer:Ben Brisbourne

Lightning Flash has a strong career win percentage and has shown glimpses of good form. The distance is suitable, and the barrier draw is fair. If he can recapture his best form, he's certainly capable of figuring in the placings, but consistency has been an issue.

Good career strike rateSuitable distanceFair barrierCan be inconsistent

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Rippa Buddy

Barrier 1 · 132kg · Form: —

MEDIUM RISK

CAREER38:5-3

Jockey:Will Gordon

Trainer:Darryl Cannon

Rippa Buddy has the coveted rail draw and has performed well at this distance in the past. While his recent form hasn't been outstanding, a soft run from barrier 1 could see him improve sharply. He's a veteran who knows how to find the line when things go his way.

Inside barrier advantageProven at distanceExperienced campaignerNeeds luck in running

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Mighty Mac

Barrier 5 · 133kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER10:1-2

Jockey:Jake Duffy

Trainer:Toby Lake

Mighty Mac has a low career win percentage but has placed well at times, indicating some ability. The step up in distance could be beneficial, and he has a reasonable barrier. He's a roughie who could surprise if everything falls into place, but he'll need to lift significantly.

Potential for distanceFair barrierNeeds to improveLow win rate

Rating Breakdown

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Avonview

Barrier 2 · 128kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER38:3-6

Jockey:Jason Maskiell

Trainer:Damien Walkley

Avonview has a good barrier and has placed at this distance before, but his overall win rate is low. He's capable of running into the money on his day, but he's more of a placegetter than a winner. He'll need a perfect ride to be competitive against some of the stronger chances.

Good barrierPlaced at distanceLow win strike rateNeeds a career-best run

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Makusha

Barrier 11 · 134kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER37:5-3

Jockey:Brad Rawiller

Trainer:Rod Symons

Makusha is a seasoned campaigner but has a wide barrier and has struggled for wins recently. While he has experience at this distance, his overall form suggests he's past his best. He'll need a lot of luck and a significant turnaround to feature here.

ExperiencedWide barrier drawPoor recent formHard to recommend

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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Mahogwise Honour

Barrier 9 · 125kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER11:1-0

Jockey:Paul Gatt

Trainer:Glen Gascoyne

Mahogwise Honour has a very low win and place strike rate, and his form doesn't inspire confidence. The wide barrier further complicates his chances. He appears to be outclassed in this field and will need a monumental effort to be a factor.

Poor career recordWide barrierOutclassedNeeds significant improvement

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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First Tosen

Barrier 8 · 121kg · Form: —

HIGH RISK

CAREER26:1-2

Jockey:Jessica Booth

Trainer:Gordon Strang

First Tosen has a very poor career record with only one win from 26 starts and a low place percentage. His form is not competitive for this event, and he faces a tough task from a wide barrier. It's hard to make a case for him against this field.

Very poor career recordWide barrierNo recent formSignificant outsider

Rating Breakdown

Barrier Draw

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